Notional ResultsThe '2005 results' shown in our map are 'notional', rather than actual. This means they are an estimation of what would have happened in 2005 had the election been fought under the new constituency boundaries that will be applicable in 2010. In all, 13 new seats have been created and 9 abolished by changes introduced in 2007, taking taking the total number of constituencies to 650. In addition, the majority of existing seats in England and Wales - though none in Scotland - had their boundaries changed. The political analysts Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, from Plymouth University, have used modelling to predict the outcome of the 2005 had it been fought under the new boundaries, and it is this prediction that we have used as the basis of our notional results. Where there has been a by-election (fought under the old boundaries), we show the result of this election in the constituency profile on the right. Rallings and Thrasher predict that of the 650 seats that will be contested in 2010, Labour would have won 349 in 2005, with the Conservatives taking 210, the Liberal Democrats 62, and the SNP, Northern Ireland parties, Plaid Cymru, and others sharing the remainder. The net effect of this that the Conservatives would gain 12 seats, while Labour would lose 7, and Plaid Cymru would lose 1. Labour's 'notional majority' would then be 48, as opposed to the majority of 66 Labour actually had after the 2005 election. PredictionsOne of the most interesting developments in recent elections has been the way bookmakers have created betting markets in individual constituencies. This General Election, for the first time, Ladbrokes is offering odds in every seat, meaning that at any point in time their data enables us to ascertain which candidate is the favourite in any given seat. We 'poll' Ladbrokes data regularly, track how odds have changed, and feed this data 'live' into our tool. We calculate the percentage change of winning for each candidate (according to their odds), and feed this data into a graph. Using Ladbrokes data to create a 'Predictions' view enables us to address one of the main challenges of traditional polling data, namely that they do not generally provide insight about voting intention at a constituency level. |
AboutIn the middle of last year, The Times decided it wanted to build a rich, data-driven site which would help our readers make sense of the 2010 General Election. It would be based around the UK map, but draw on a wide range of data sources and use innovative visual techniques to display all the information we thought was relevant to a pivotal election. To help, we engaged Shift Control, a Copenhagen-based company who are world experts in the exciting new field of data visualisation. At the core of Election 10 is a map view which lets readers explore the results of 2005 election in their constituency, and learn about the constituency in which they will vote this year. (The Times' political staff have been busy drafting individual profiles for the 650 constituencies, many of them new or changed, that will be contested.) They can also get a sense of who is likely to win their seat based on data we process from Ladbrokes.
Over the course of the campaign, the tool will also engage a range of other data sources, including: We hope you enjoy exploring Election 10. Make sure to visit our mobile website and sign up for a customised news service, and let us know what you think at election10@thetimes.co.uk. |
Sources
2005 notional results
Predictions |
